More than half (53%) of school leaders in Wales are predicting a budget deficit this academic year amid a financial crisis which is forcing many to cut services and staff including teachers.
The bleak finding - nearly double the 29% who reported a deficit last year - comes after school leaders’ union NAHT Cymru surveyed its members on funding.
More than a quarter (27%) said they were predicting a deficit for the first time ever in 2024/25. Every single one said they did not receive sufficient funding to meet the needs of all their pupils fully.
NAHT’s report - Falling Short: The Deepening School Funding Crisis in Wales - found school leaders are having to take drastic action.
More than a quarter (28%) are reducing the number or hours of teachers, nearly six in ten (59%) are leaving posts empty, and 55% are reducing teaching assistant hours.
Compared with 2021, when NAHT asked school leaders similar questions, they are now around twice as likely to have to be taking these measures.
Other cuts include delaying repairs, refurbishment, or general capital spending (45% of school leaders), reducing non-educational support and services for children – such as educational psychologists, behaviour support, social workers, and school liaison officers (29%), reducing or changing the curriculum offer (15%) and not investing in staff professional development and training (52%).
Only three per cent said they didn’t need to make savings, compared to a fifth three years ago.
The survey shows a range of issues are conspiring to fuel the funding crisis, all of which have worsened over the last three years – from support for pupils with additional learning needs, cited by 88% of school leaders, to inflation and increased salaries (55%), supply cover 52%) and changes to local funding formulae (25%).
Nearly three in ten (29%) blamed expenses incurred due to inaccessible or insufficient local authority school services. Separately, almost eight in 10 (79%) reported an increase in parents or carers seeking help due to the cost of living, and close to half (48%) highlighted support for pupils whose mental health had deteriorated.
Laura Doel, national secretary of NAHT Cymru, said: “School leaders simply cannot go on doing more with less. They didn’t sign up to this job to set deficit budgets, cut spending on pupils and lay off teachers and support staff. In the three years since our last survey, the change for the worse is alarming.
“We were shocked that school funding didn’t feature in the first minister’s priority list when she set out her plans for government earlier this week.
“Schools need more resources to allow them focus on driving up standards rather than firefighting increasingly worrying holes in their budgets.
“At the moment, schools and local authorities in Wales are facing really unpalatable choices and we need to work together not only to argue for proper funding but also to identify sustainable, innovative solutions to this crisis.”
NAHT Cymru says the Welsh Government’s ongoing review aimed at replacing the 22 different local authority funding formulae with one coherent system must end the postcode lottery around how much individual schools receive and ensure greater transparency around funding.
Chris Parry, president of NAHT Cymru said: “This report highlights the severe impact of financial shortfalls on schools across Wales. School leaders are caught between a rock and a hard place, being forced to cut staff, reduce support services, and compromise essential learning resources simply to stay afloat.
“These findings should serve as a wake-up call for the Welsh Government about the need for immediate action. The funding crisis threatens the quality of education, and without a clear, strategic response, schools will be unable to provide the support that pupils and staff need. A long-term solution is essential.”
Paul Whiteman, general secretary at school leaders’ union NAHT, said: “These truly dire findings should set alarm bells ringing for everyone with a stake in children’s education – from parents and carers, to local and national politicians.
“Dedicated school leaders struggling with fewer resources amid mounting costs and pressures are at their wits end as they try to maintain a high-quality education for pupils while being forced into completely unpalatable cuts.
“It is simple not sustainable and is putting educational outcomes at risk - not just for disadvantaged pupils who need the most help, but across the board. Something has to give.”
ENDS
Notes to Eds
NAHT Cymru surveyed 416 members across Wales online from June 26-July 17 this year. They included head teachers, executive heads, deputy and assistant heads, heads of school, school business leaders, alternative learning needs coordinators and other middle leaders. Its report also includes data from a comparative survey run with NAHT Cymru members in 2021.
Nearly one in three school leaders (29%) reported a yearly deficit in their school budget in 2023/24, close to three times that in 2021 (9%).
Looking forward another three years, 64% of members forecast they will face a deficit in 2026/27.